With all the bad news that has been dumped upon the economy for some reason the stock market is going up. Why?
The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) has just set up new guidelines for core earnings. No more proforma computations. You know what proforma means - the company CEO or Treasurer waves his magic wand and says this is what I expect to appear as soon as I let the genii out of the bottle. And pigs can fly. These imaginary numbers may give his company a Price/Earnings ration of 20 which is pretty good by today's standards.
Now those mean guys in Washington have said you must reevaluate your earnings but this time figure in your stock options, pension costs and any restructuring charges. Holy Cow, that makes the P/E ratio 37. And that ain't no bargain when you are buying stock. The 100 year average has run about a 14 P/E. If the company has not been paying any dividends then this is a stock that must be suspect for any long term holding.
Because of these new guidelines the entire S&P Index P/E has gone from a 33 to 49. That is much better than it was in January 2002 when it reached 69. This number makes the entire market overvalued and still leaves me with the question of how can the market advance using these high P/Es?
There are a couple of answers and neither may be the right one.
The market has become severely oversold. The bear people have been riding it down until the news media finally recognized we have a long-term bear market. There have become too many traders who think there is no bottom and are willing to sell anything and everything. Enter the trading bargain hunters. It will now be the bears turn to be punished.
It takes money to put the market up. Where is that coming from? Our white knight, Sir Greenspan, has come in with his bags of money this past week. Look past our borders and you will see stock exchanges in every major country in the world that look sicker than ours. Foreign investors want a new home for their money and it seems the U.S. market looks darn good. As that money has started buying you may begin to see pension plan and mutual fund managers coming into the market.
The talking heads on TV and radio will give many other reasons that can be fueling the market advance and they may also be correct. Our market may be overvalued as we see it, but to others it looks like a bargain. Money is always looking for the greatest return and with wire transfers billions of dollars can and does move in a matter of hours. Oversold to the foreign market traders means underbought. It seems they have put on their buying clothes and want a piece of the action as our market is headed up - at least for a while.
(c) 2005
Al Thomas' best selling book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter to receive his market letter for 3 months at www.mutualfundmagic.com to discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.
one time home cleaning Highland Park ..The spring-loaded rat catcher is the ultimate low-tech device invented... Read More
It has often been said that there is only two... Read More
Money management starts with protecting your capital, realizing profits and... Read More
Today's society gives special recognition to alcoholics, sexaholics, binge-aholics, shopaholics,... Read More
A 'stock option' is a contract between two parties giving... Read More
If you haven't heard of the technical indicator with the... Read More
For some "long term" would mean holding a stock position... Read More
We've all heard of the stock market and probably have... Read More
When you invest in the stock market for ever-increasing cash... Read More
There are major differences between trading stocks and trading futures.... Read More
People are constantly asking me why is the stock market... Read More
Hedge current portfolio positions and gain access to capital resources... Read More
Never lose money in the stock market again. Yeah, I... Read More
It is difficult to make money in a bull market,... Read More
Minority Report the movie may not be far off if... Read More
No, this is not a symbol for some Latin number.... Read More
If you are fed up with early redemption charges and... Read More
When it comes to buying a stock or mutual fund... Read More
Every year I go to the Money Show in Orlando,... Read More
To begin, you might look at playing the stock market... Read More
When it comes to stock market trading it PAYS to... Read More
Disclaimer: Please note that I do not necessarily purchase, own,... Read More
Sometime in the third quarter of 1997, someone told me... Read More
When is a dividend not a dividend?The latest thing "conservative"... Read More
Wall Street has been preaching for years and years to... Read More
licensed cleaning services Park Ridge ..Disclaimer: Please note that I do not necessarily purchase, own,... Read More
Inverted interest rates? What's that? Who cares? Even if you... Read More
When it comes to mutual funds, there is a lot... Read More
We keep hearing about this bear market and that the... Read More
In 1960 an engineer working for a watch company in... Read More
The basis of diminishing return discussions surround such simple notions;... Read More
Have you been listening to the talking heads on CNBC-TV?... Read More
If you are serious about making and keeping money by... Read More
During the month of January the Dow Jones Industrial Average,... Read More
Trading is a fascinating activity.There are so many layers to... Read More
Stock investment advice is easy to find. Do you get... Read More
Mutual fund investing is a lot like Thai cooking. Everyone... Read More
Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a... Read More
Just about now everyone is confused as to which way... Read More
After finding the price of a particular stock, usually the... Read More
Sometime around 1980, can't remember exactly, there was a flight... Read More
Before you embark upon a journey of trading stocks or... Read More
An insane person cannot evaluate an insane evaluation system.As you... Read More
Someday you may want to retire and continue to live... Read More
Everyone who invests in the stock market wants to be... Read More
I don't know what kind it is, but I saw... Read More
Why? Because I am going to shatter your conventional wisdom... Read More
I'll bet with almost anyone that has stocks or mutual... Read More
In a previously written article, we expanded the use of... Read More
Outlined below are some of the advantages and disadvantages of... Read More
Stocks & Mutual Fund |