Hill of Hope

Just about now everyone is confused as to which way the stock market is going to go - up or down. For the past 3 years it has been headed south, but the Wall Street experts have told us that the market never goes down 4 years in a row so this has to be an up year. But no guarantees.

The old saying is that the stock market climbs a wall of worry. We watch sharp moves up followed by days, sometimes weeks of weakness and then another shot to higher prices. From 1982 to 2000 this went on until we absolutely, positively knew it was going to continue forever. The current mindset is you can't lose if you just "hang in there". Mr. Average-stockholder has lost about 50% of his money so far and has chewed his fingernails to the nub. Now what?

I hope you don't need a house to fall on you to realize we are in a long-term bear market, one that could last for years. In a bear market the action is exactly opposite what you see in a bull market - sharp declines followed by slow agonizing rallies that don't quite make it back to the previous high prices. This is called climbing the Hill of Hope. This is a slippery hill to which you will not make it to the top. Hope is the most expensive word in an investor's lexicon.

The smartest (?) analysts (?) and talking heads on TV continue to tell us the market always comes back - if you live long enough. They fail to tell you that every bull market is followed by a bear market of about equal length. This last bull ended after 18 years and if cycles repeat we have 15 more years of the downward path to follow. I know - "this time it is different". Let's hope so, but I don't want to have my money on hope.

The DOW Industrial Index has been down 3 years in a row and only once in history has it gone down 4 times to newer lows. Did you know that the DOW Transportation Index has been down 5 years straight? Can there possibly be a sixth year? Your answer is as good as mine.

There has recently been some liquidation of mutual funds from 401Ks and IRAs, but the amount is small. It has been reported that there is about 3 trillion (with a T) in mutual funds. The talking heads speak of 10 and 20 billion leaving the so-called "safe haven". As a percentage of total assets this is a spit. One of these days not too far in the future (probably this year) investors will suddenly get the idea to head for the door. And they all seem to do it about the same time like lemmings headed over the cliff.

This will look like a major bottom in the market - and it might be if the P/E ratio can get down to around 10 or less. Until it does they will still be trying, unsuccessfully, to climb that Hill of Hope.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

recurring maid service Buffalo Grove ..

In The News:

The iconic Mary Kay pink Cadillac goes electric with the Cadillac Optiq, available only to the company's top 1% of sales force performers.

Cybercriminals abuse trusted Intel driver to gain kernel access and shut down Windows Defender, enabling undetected malware deployment since July 2025.

Using email aliases for online shopping and subscriptions can protect your privacy by preventing companies from linking your activity across websites.

New research shows AI overlap does not equal job replacement, with knowledge-based roles seeing most integration while physical jobs remain least affected.

Scammers target seniors who avoid social media by exploiting public records like obituaries and real estate filings to steal personal information and money

Recovery team in Italy use AI-enabled drones to detect missing hiker's red helmet, leading to successful recovery after months of ground searches

Google Salesforce system breach exposes business data while scammers use incident to target users with fake security calls and phishing attempts.

Google announces Pixel 10 lineup with Tensor G5 chip and Gemini Nano AI, introducing Magic Cue, Pro Res Zoom up to 100x and satellite emergency support features.

C San Diego study reveals 86% of school safety companies monitor students 24/7 on personal devices, raising privacy concerns.

Users can now add their favorite outlets' coverage to the Top Stories section of Google search results by utilizing the 'preferred sources' feature. With just a few clicks, you can add Fox News.

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

Interstellar object 3I/ATLAS shows an unexpected frontal glow that Harvard's Avi Loeb says cannot be explained by sunlight reflection or standard cometary outgassing.

Receiving order confirmations for purchases you never made could mean your email address is being exploited in fraud operations targeting multiple retailers.

First wireless brain implant works with Apple's official protocol, enabling hands-free control of iPhones, iPads and Vision Pro through thought alone.

Data brokers sell personal details that scammers use to target retirement funds through fake financial advisor calls and convincing phishing attempts

Ten innovative tech solutions from gait sensors to smart pill dispensers help adults 65+ track fall risks and prevent injuries before they happen.

Meta AI internal documents revealed chatbots were allowed to flirt with children and engage in romantic conversations until the company was exposed by Reuters.

ChatGPT will avoid giving direct mental health advice under new OpenAI rules following instances where the AI model provided harmful or misleading responses.

Your phone tracks you in more ways than that little GPS icon suggests. Here’s how to find and clear hidden location logs on iPhone and Android.

Authorities in France and the Netherlands have been notified. Meanwhile, impacted customers are being told to stay alert.

Apple just rolled out a redesigned Blood Oxygen feature to specific models, following a recent victory in a legal dispute.

Kidney dialysis provider DaVita experienced a ransomware breach by the Interlock gang affecting 916,000 people in the second-largest U.S. healthcare attack of 2025.

A Chinese-made Unitree R1 robot walked Manhattan streets and shopped for shoes as part of KraneShares' $28 million AI robotics fund promotion campaign.

The ShinyHunters cybercriminal group breached Google's Salesforce system through vishing attacks, stealing business contact details and customer data.

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

Hill of Hope

Stocks & Mutual Fund