Forecasting the Stock Market

Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. "Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months." Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust any who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.

Of course, your broker will send you gobs of slick material about various companies that predict they will double or triple in the next 12 months. On the New York Stock Exchange there will be about one half of one per cent (0.5%) of companies that will double this year. Are you smart enough to pick those winners? I'm not and I am considered a professional trader. And I am sure your broker isn't either. He just wants to make a commission and is probably promoting a stock his brokerage company wants to push.

Every investor wants to know the future and will send money to some "expert" who will send him news about a company that only (?) he knows. And pigs can fly. One thing about the market. It is almost impossible to keep a secret and everyone knows everything about other companies. As soon as some "analyst" finds a cogent fact that can influence a stock price he will share that "secret" with a few close friends. Within minutes the "secret" is known by hundreds of thousands and is immediately reflected in the price of the stock.

If you do get sucked into one of these money traps by some smooth-talking salesman or newspaper verbiage I strongly suggest you immediately plan your exit strategy. Without an exit plan you can easily lose a large amount of your "investment". This is not an investment; it is a gamble and should be treated as such. The first thought of any professional trader is 'if I am wrong how much am I willing to lose'? Maybe 2%, 5%, certainly no more than 10%. Pros understand that small losses are OK, but never take a big loss.

From 1982 to 2000 it seemed everyone was a financial genius. How many of those folks kept those big winnings from 2000? Almost none. Most lost 40% to 60% of their money. Brokers said, "Hang in there. You are in for the long haul". Unfortunately he did not tell you that Modern Portfolio Theory is based on a 40 year time line.

Yes, but understand you don't need to predict anything. Don't forecast. What you can easily learn is follow the major trend. You bought in 1982 and you sold out in 2000. The trend can be found in many ways with the simplest being posted every day in Investors Business Daily newspaper under the IBD Mutual Fund Index. When the Index price is above the 200-day moving average you own equities and when it is below you are in cash or bonds. Nothing complicated,

Don't try to forecast the market. Let the market trend tell you.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

personalized cleaning services Des Plaines ..

In The News:

Petco disclosed a data breach exposing customer Social Security numbers, financial account details, and driver's license information due to a software error.

Baseball teams can now analyze complete swing mechanics in normal training environments using Theia's markerless AI system that processes standard high-speed footage.

Smart home hacking fears overblown? Expert reveals real cybersecurity risks and simple protection tips to keep your connected devices safe from hackers.

MIT develops needle-free glucose monitor using light technology. Revolutionary device could replace painful finger pricks for diabetes management.

The ClickFix campaign disguises malware as legitimate Windows updates, using steganography to hide shellcode in PNG files and bypass security detection systems.

Researchers from Osaka Metropolitan University designed a 21-foot dome that combines aquaculture and hydroponics to create a self-sustaining urban food system.

The Fox News AI Newsletter gives readers the latest AI technology advancements, covering the challenges and opportunities AI presents.

ChatGPT data breach exposes personal info of users through partner Mixpanel. OpenAI confirms names, emails compromised in security incident.

Android rolls out Emergency Live Video for 911 calls, letting dispatchers see real-time scenes during emergencies. Great for holiday travel safety.

Malicious Chrome and Edge extensions collected browsing history, keystrokes and personal data from millions of users before Google and Microsoft removed them.

Google's new Call Reason feature lets Android users mark calls as urgent before dialing, displaying an urgent label to recipients using Phone by Google app.

Medical history made as surgeons successfully restore sight to legally blind patient using world's first 3D printed corneal implant grown from human cells.

Data brokers aggressively collect your holiday shopping data to fuel scams and targeted ads. Learn how to delete your digital profile before 2025 starts.

Scammers are sending fake MetaMask wallet verification emails using official branding to steal crypto information through phishing links and fraudulent domains.

Learn what background permissions, push notifications, security updates, auto-join networks and app refresh mean to better manage your phone's privacy settings.

Criminals test stolen data by applying for deposit accounts in victims' names to prepare bigger attacks. Learn why banks won't share fraud details.

New study of 10,500+ kids reveals early smartphone ownership linked to depression, obesity, and poor sleep by age 12. Earlier phones mean higher risks.

A phone phishing attack compromised Harvard's alumni and donor database, marking the second security incident at the university in recent months.

AutoFlight's zero-carbon floating vertiport uses solar power to charge eVTOL aircraft while supporting emergency response, tourism, and marine energy maintenance.

A new phone return scam targets recent buyers with fake carrier calls. Learn how criminals steal devices and steps to protect yourself from this fraud.

New Anthropic research reveals how AI reward hacking leads to dangerous behaviors, including models giving harmful advice like drinking bleach to users seeking help.

The Fox News AI Newsletter gives readers the latest AI technology advancements, covering the challenges and opportunities AI presents.

Holiday email scams, including non-delivery fraud and gift card schemes, spike in November and December, costing victims hundreds of millions, the FBI says.

Holiday visits offer the perfect opportunity to help older parents with technology updates, scam protection and basic troubleshooting skills for safer digital experiences.

Swiss scientists create grain-sized robot that surgeons control with magnets to deliver medicine precisely through blood vessels in medical breakthrough.

Forecasting the Stock Market

Stocks & Mutual Fund