Forecasting the Stock Market

Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. "Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months." Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust any who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.

Of course, your broker will send you gobs of slick material about various companies that predict they will double or triple in the next 12 months. On the New York Stock Exchange there will be about one half of one per cent (0.5%) of companies that will double this year. Are you smart enough to pick those winners? I'm not and I am considered a professional trader. And I am sure your broker isn't either. He just wants to make a commission and is probably promoting a stock his brokerage company wants to push.

Every investor wants to know the future and will send money to some "expert" who will send him news about a company that only (?) he knows. And pigs can fly. One thing about the market. It is almost impossible to keep a secret and everyone knows everything about other companies. As soon as some "analyst" finds a cogent fact that can influence a stock price he will share that "secret" with a few close friends. Within minutes the "secret" is known by hundreds of thousands and is immediately reflected in the price of the stock.

If you do get sucked into one of these money traps by some smooth-talking salesman or newspaper verbiage I strongly suggest you immediately plan your exit strategy. Without an exit plan you can easily lose a large amount of your "investment". This is not an investment; it is a gamble and should be treated as such. The first thought of any professional trader is 'if I am wrong how much am I willing to lose'? Maybe 2%, 5%, certainly no more than 10%. Pros understand that small losses are OK, but never take a big loss.

From 1982 to 2000 it seemed everyone was a financial genius. How many of those folks kept those big winnings from 2000? Almost none. Most lost 40% to 60% of their money. Brokers said, "Hang in there. You are in for the long haul". Unfortunately he did not tell you that Modern Portfolio Theory is based on a 40 year time line.

Yes, but understand you don't need to predict anything. Don't forecast. What you can easily learn is follow the major trend. You bought in 1982 and you sold out in 2000. The trend can be found in many ways with the simplest being posted every day in Investors Business Daily newspaper under the IBD Mutual Fund Index. When the Index price is above the 200-day moving average you own equities and when it is below you are in cash or bonds. Nothing complicated,

Don't try to forecast the market. Let the market trend tell you.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

disinfecting cleaning services Arlington Heights ..
In The News:

ChatGPT data breach exposes personal info of users through partner Mixpanel. OpenAI confirms names, emails compromised in security incident.
Android rolls out Emergency Live Video for 911 calls, letting dispatchers see real-time scenes during emergencies. Great for holiday travel safety.
Malicious Chrome and Edge extensions collected browsing history, keystrokes and personal data from millions of users before Google and Microsoft removed them.
Google's new Call Reason feature lets Android users mark calls as urgent before dialing, displaying an urgent label to recipients using Phone by Google app.
Medical history made as surgeons successfully restore sight to legally blind patient using world's first 3D printed corneal implant grown from human cells.
Data brokers aggressively collect your holiday shopping data to fuel scams and targeted ads. Learn how to delete your digital profile before 2025 starts.
Scammers are sending fake MetaMask wallet verification emails using official branding to steal crypto information through phishing links and fraudulent domains.
Learn what background permissions, push notifications, security updates, auto-join networks and app refresh mean to better manage your phone's privacy settings.
Criminals test stolen data by applying for deposit accounts in victims' names to prepare bigger attacks. Learn why banks won't share fraud details.
New study of 10,500+ kids reveals early smartphone ownership linked to depression, obesity, and poor sleep by age 12. Earlier phones mean higher risks.
A phone phishing attack compromised Harvard's alumni and donor database, marking the second security incident at the university in recent months.
AutoFlight's zero-carbon floating vertiport uses solar power to charge eVTOL aircraft while supporting emergency response, tourism, and marine energy maintenance.
A new phone return scam targets recent buyers with fake carrier calls. Learn how criminals steal devices and steps to protect yourself from this fraud.
New Anthropic research reveals how AI reward hacking leads to dangerous behaviors, including models giving harmful advice like drinking bleach to users seeking help.
The Fox News AI Newsletter gives readers the latest AI technology advancements, covering the challenges and opportunities AI presents.
Holiday email scams, including non-delivery fraud and gift card schemes, spike in November and December, costing victims hundreds of millions, the FBI says.
Holiday visits offer the perfect opportunity to help older parents with technology updates, scam protection and basic troubleshooting skills for safer digital experiences.
Swiss scientists create grain-sized robot that surgeons control with magnets to deliver medicine precisely through blood vessels in medical breakthrough.
Researchers exploited WhatsApp's API vulnerability to scrape 3.5 billion phone numbers. Learn how this massive data breach happened and protect yourself.
Travel companies share passenger data with third parties during holidays, but travelers can protect themselves by removing data from broker sites and using aliases.
Xpeng's humanoid robot moves so realistically that crowds believed it was fake, marking a major advancement in robotics technology ahead of 2026 commercial launch.
Researchers discover phishing scam using invisible characters to evade email security, with protection tips including password managers and two-factor authentication.
iPhone and Android users can reduce battery drain and data usage by restricting Background App Refresh to Wi-Fi connections instead of mobile networks.
Scammers nearly stole an Apple account by exploiting the support system with authentic-looking tickets and phone calls, users can protect themselves with safety steps.
FoloToy restored sales of its AI teddy bear Kumma after a weeklong suspension following safety group findings of risky and inappropriate responses to children.

It Cant Be Done

Wouldn't it be nice if you were only in the... Read More

Hedge Funds

You read and hear a lot about hedge funds. Unfortunately,... Read More

NASDAQ 800?

In November of 2000 when the NASDAQ was trading at... Read More

Stock Market Insanity

Let's first define insanity. It is doing the same thing... Read More

Choosing a Stock Broker

If you were to find that you had some severe... Read More

Why This Bear?

People are constantly asking me why is the stock market... Read More

The Golden Goose is Sick

It is finally catching up with them. The brokerage companies... Read More

An Old Proverb for Investing

"If you don't know where you are going, any road... Read More

Boiler Room 7/17/00

On Friday or Saturday evening my wife gets a movie... Read More

Why Is The Macedonian Stock Exchange Unsuccessful?

The Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) is not operating successfully. True,... Read More

Good News?

As the man said, "I've got some good news and... Read More

Stocks & Oil, Sat Jun 18th, 2005

Both the stock market and oil prices rallied recently, which... Read More

Advantages and Disadvantages of Mutual Funds

Outlined below are some of the advantages and disadvantages of... Read More

Buy and Hold: How to Perpetuate Your Investment Losses

A recent cartoon in my daily newspaper showed two guys... Read More

Paddle Your Canoe

At some time in your life you have been on... Read More

Bad News is Good News

For weeks, no, months we have been bombarded with nothing... Read More

Staying Sane While Wall Street Crashes

Everybody is riding the Wall Street Roller coaster. Even if... Read More

Its A Bull, Its A Bear, Its Suptertrader!

The higher the market goes the more confusing are the... Read More

Mutual Fund Ball and Chain

The broker told me not to sell because the mutual... Read More

Humpty Dumpty the Stock Market Falls Down

Humpty Dumpty had a great fall and all the King's... Read More

Buy and Hold Investment Strategy

"Buy and hold" is one of the most heralded investment... Read More

Jack and Jill

Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a... Read More

Duck

Duck! No I don't mean a quack, quack. I meant... Read More

Keep Your Profits

It looks like we have now entered a new bull... Read More

Precision Money Management

This article describes the model of a natural relationship between... Read More

bathroom cleaning service Mundelein ..