Forecasting the Stock Market

Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. "Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months." Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust any who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.

Of course, your broker will send you gobs of slick material about various companies that predict they will double or triple in the next 12 months. On the New York Stock Exchange there will be about one half of one per cent (0.5%) of companies that will double this year. Are you smart enough to pick those winners? I'm not and I am considered a professional trader. And I am sure your broker isn't either. He just wants to make a commission and is probably promoting a stock his brokerage company wants to push.

Every investor wants to know the future and will send money to some "expert" who will send him news about a company that only (?) he knows. And pigs can fly. One thing about the market. It is almost impossible to keep a secret and everyone knows everything about other companies. As soon as some "analyst" finds a cogent fact that can influence a stock price he will share that "secret" with a few close friends. Within minutes the "secret" is known by hundreds of thousands and is immediately reflected in the price of the stock.

If you do get sucked into one of these money traps by some smooth-talking salesman or newspaper verbiage I strongly suggest you immediately plan your exit strategy. Without an exit plan you can easily lose a large amount of your "investment". This is not an investment; it is a gamble and should be treated as such. The first thought of any professional trader is 'if I am wrong how much am I willing to lose'? Maybe 2%, 5%, certainly no more than 10%. Pros understand that small losses are OK, but never take a big loss.

From 1982 to 2000 it seemed everyone was a financial genius. How many of those folks kept those big winnings from 2000? Almost none. Most lost 40% to 60% of their money. Brokers said, "Hang in there. You are in for the long haul". Unfortunately he did not tell you that Modern Portfolio Theory is based on a 40 year time line.

Yes, but understand you don't need to predict anything. Don't forecast. What you can easily learn is follow the major trend. You bought in 1982 and you sold out in 2000. The trend can be found in many ways with the simplest being posted every day in Investors Business Daily newspaper under the IBD Mutual Fund Index. When the Index price is above the 200-day moving average you own equities and when it is below you are in cash or bonds. Nothing complicated,

Don't try to forecast the market. Let the market trend tell you.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Airbnb cleaning service Arlington Heights ..

In The News:

Red flags like processing fees, urgent countdowns and requests for full Social Security numbers expose fraudulent settlement sites targeting consumers.

Comprehensive analysis of Google Maps, Waze and Apple Maps examines usability, routing accuracy, data handling and features across the top navigation platforms.

Expert analysis reveals whether wired Ethernet or wireless Wi-Fi connections are safer for home internet use, plus practical steps to secure your network from attackers.

Australian construction robot Charlotte uses sand, crushed brick and recycled glass to 3D print fireproof, floodproof homes with reduced carbon footprint.

Cybercriminals are using fake invitation emails to trick recipients into downloading malware and stealing personal information and data.

Flying drones could help retailers fight a 93% increase in theft rates as Flock Safety promotes airborne security systems to track suspects and deter crime.

The Fox News Artificial Intelligence Newsletter brings you the latest news on the emerging technology every Saturday, highlighting top stories.

Hacker group Radiant stole data from 8,000 children at Kido nursery chain, demanding ransom and directly contacting parents with intimidation tactics.

As 18 states implement bell-to-bell cell phone bans, creative students use Google Docs, iMessage on MacBooks and Post-It notes to stay connected in class.

A sheriff's captain says deputies often spend hours writing reports between calls, but Axon's AI program, Draft One, helps them save crucial time in the field.

Sora 2, OpenAI's new video-generation app, can create AI-generated videos based on a singular prompt. The results are both mind-blowing and terrifying.

iPhone and Android users can reduce Wi-Fi calling battery drainage through settings adjustments, background app limits and stronger Wi-Fi connections.

Work email scams are becoming harder to detect as criminals use AI and spoofed addresses to trick employees into opening malicious attachments and links.

From her Arizona living room, Christina Chapman ran a covert hub that helped North Korean operatives infiltrate U.S. firms, netting $17 million in stolen salaries.

UC Santa Barbara researchers developed a soft robotic intubation system that achieved 100% success rates for experts and 96% for paramedics with minimal training.

Scammers exploit probate filings to target grieving families with fake fees and debts, Kurt "Cyberguy" Knutsson reports.

Automotive giant Stellantis becomes latest victim of widespread Salesforce breaches affecting companies like Google, Cisco and Adidas this year.

A woman from Washington reunited with her missing Maine Coon cat Louie after 11 days using Love Lost, a free AI-powered pet recovery platform.

Expert cybersecurity tips help Mac owners remove malware infections and strengthen defenses with antivirus software, password managers and system updates.

Meta's AI chatbot training rules bans sexual roleplay with minors and block access to child abuse material as regulators scrutinize its safety measures.

Online banking users face a new threat: web injection scams that overlay fake pop-ups to steal logins. Here’s how to spot them and protect your accounts.

Meta introduced Teen Accounts to Facebook and Messenger while launching a School Partnership Program for U.S. educators to report bullying within 48 hours.

Executive order signed by President Donald Trump tasks Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s MAHA Commission with using AI to find new cures for childhood cancers.

New FileFix attack tricks Facebook and Instagram users into running malicious PowerShell commands disguised as Meta account maintenance to deploy StealC infostealer.

Step-by-step instructions help users migrate to Windows 11 while preserving emails, contacts, documents, and software licenses during the transition.

Forecasting the Stock Market

Stocks & Mutual Fund