The Big Bad Bear

The big bad bear is stirring again. So far he has stretched, yawned and peaked out of his cave. After his almost year-long nap he is hungry. A nice big steak would hit the spot.

That steak comes from cattle and not too far from his den there is a fat complacent bull munching in the pasture. He has his tail towards the bear and Mr. Bear remembers that 3 years ago he walked up to another bull and bit him in the backside. It looks like he can do it again.

We know who bull and bear really are. It seems that almost everyone is bullish and thinks we are in another bull market like the one in 1999 where all investors thought they were geniuses. History has taught (for those who wish to listen and learn) that major bull markets are followed by bear markets of equal length. The major bull came to an end after 18 years in 2000. Can we expect an 18-year bear market? If history repeats its cycle the answer is yes.

The recent return of the upward movement of stock prices from last year is very typical of rallies in bear markets. Many have a 50% retracement of the first down leg (as happened after the big break in 1929) that tops out with the resumption of the downward path.

Today our bull is feeding on the lowest interest rates in 40 years, a tax cut that puts extra money in the hands of consumers (where it belongs) and a strong housing market plus the belief that the market always does well in an election year. Let's hope all these things will come to pass.

The worst problem for investors is their complacency. They start making money and forget to protect their profits. These slip away when the market starts down and their broker says, "Don't worry. The market always comes back". If the investor did not learn to protect his assets from the 2000 debacle he is doomed to lose again. What should he do?

He should protect his investment account with stop-loss orders on all stocks and mental stops for all mutual funds. Brokers hate this and will try to talk their clients out of doing it. Why? Because he makes a commission as long as you are invested and nothing if you have cash in your money market.

It is better to make 1% in a money market than lose 20% or more of the principle as the market heads south. You don't have to be a market "expert" to place a stop. Decide how much risk you are will to take 5%, 10%, 15%? And place your stop accordingly.

When this bear comes out of his cave don't let him bite you ? you know where.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

apartment cleaning near Highland Park ..
In The News:

Commerce Department proposes TP-Link router ban over Chinese security risks. Learn how this potential prohibition could affect your home network and devices.
Hyundai AutoEver America suffered a data breach affecting 2,000 current and former employees, exposing names, Social Security numbers and driver's license information.
Washington court rules automated license plate reader images are public records, even when stored by vendors like Flock Safety, setting precedent for transparency.
Fake airline texts claiming flight cancellations are targeting travelers with convincing scams. Learn how cybercriminals steal personal data and credit card info.
Discover how iOS 26's new Adaptive Power feature automatically extends iPhone battery life by learning your usage patterns and adjusting performance intelligently.
New TikTok malware campaign tricks users into running PowerShell commands that download Aura Stealer, which steals credentials and authentication tokens.
Gaia Family offers fixed upfront pricing for IVF cycles with unlimited embryo transfers and financial protection, partnering with over 100 U.S. fertility clinics.
The Jetsons Act aims to position Pennsylvania as a leader in advanced air mobility by establishing regulations for hybrid ground-air vehicles.
Fake Geek Squad invoice emails are targeting users with convincing charges and urgent phone numbers to steal personal information and money.
Fox News Digital's artificial intelligence newsletter digs into a robot in Russia that faceplanted, George Clooney's alarm and OpenAI's rivalry with the New York Times.
Major data breach at Conduent exposes personal information of 10+ million people. Government contractor hit by cyberattack affecting Medicaid, child support systems.
Texas startup Janta Power raises $5.5M for innovative vertical solar towers that generate 50% more energy than traditional panels while using just one-third the land.
NASA's twin ESCAPADE spacecraft launched aboard Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket Thursday afternoon from Cape Canaveral, beginning their journey to Mars with arrival expected in 2027.
Learn how to set email reminders on iPhone and Android so you never forget to reply again. Simple built-in features help you stay organized and on top of messages.
Discover how Apple's passkeys revolutionize Mac security by replacing vulnerable passwords with biometric authentication and encryption for ultimate protection.
New survey reveals 78% of parents fear AI scams targeting their kids, yet nearly half haven't discussed these threats. Learn why this dangerous gap exists.
Chrome now autofills passport and driver's license info automatically. Google's latest browser update adds official document support with encryption and user control.
Scammers impersonate Department of Veterans Affairs employees claiming veterans owe money, but real VA communications only direct to VA.gov or official channels.
The AltoVolo Sigma hybrid-electric aircraft flies 500 miles at 220 mph while operating 80% quieter than helicopters, featuring safety systems and compact design.
Google search scam alert: fake customer service numbers can give scammers remote control of your phone. Learn how to spot these traps and protect yourself.
Electric vehicles overtake gas cars in total CO2 savings after just two years of driving, with emissions benefits growing over time as power grids get cleaner.
Louvre Museum reportedly used "Louvre" as password for surveillance system during $100M jewel heist. Learn how weak passwords put even famous institutions at risk.
Bipartisan AI jobs bill from Sens. Hawley and Warner would require companies to report AI-related layoffs and hiring to Department of Labor quarterly.
Joe A. from Shelton, Connecticut, lost $228,000 to a ZAP Solutions cryptocurrency investment scam after his divorce, highlighting rising online fraud.
AI-powered autonomous trucks from Waabi and Volvo target U.S. freight driver shortage with Level 4 self-driving technology and NVIDIA computing platform integration.

I Love You, Warren Buffet

Sometime around 1980, can't remember exactly, there was a flight... Read More

A Triple Dipper: How to Make 3 Profits on 1 Stock Trade

This is a rather simple strategy with which I am... Read More

Selling

The stock market has been going up for more than... Read More

Its A Bull, Its A Bear, Its Suptertrader!

The higher the market goes the more confusing are the... Read More

Why the Majority Fail at Stock Investing

The gleam and bright lights of Wall Street lure in... Read More

Forecasting the Stock Market

Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers... Read More

Series 7 Exam

What is the Series 7 Exam? If you... Read More

Structured Settlement; Lawyers in NY and Mutual Funds

Minority Report the movie may not be far off if... Read More

Which Way The Market

I am hearing predictions by brokers, financial planners, talk show... Read More

Trading Stocks ?Never Forget About A Past Trade

We all know that emotions control every decision that an... Read More

Evaluation I

An insane person cannot evaluate an insane evaluation system.As you... Read More

E-mini Day Trading - Day Trading for Beginners - Stock Market Timing Software

I mean it when I say that. While plastic silverware... Read More

Fools Gold

The stock market has been in an up trend for... Read More

The Big Bad Bear

The big bad bear is stirring again. So far he... Read More

Kick The Tires

Before you buy another car you walk around the lot,... Read More

Is The Bear In The Cage?

For the last few weeks we have seen the stock... Read More

Price to Earnings Ratio - P/E

After finding the price of a particular stock, usually the... Read More

The Information Age

It is wonderful to be alive in the information age.... Read More

Laws and Efficiencies and Theories of Diminishing Returns

The basis of diminishing return discussions surround such simple notions;... Read More

Historical Briefing: Stocks, Finance and Money

The World Bank claims that some two billion of the... Read More

Valuation

Every day I hear from the "experts" on CNBC-TV and... Read More

Dollar Cost Averaging

Dollar cost averaging is one of the most popular ideas... Read More

Buy and Hold Investment Strategy

"Buy and hold" is one of the most heralded investment... Read More

Picking Mutual Funds to Outperform the Market

With over 6,000 mutual funds available, it may be tempting... Read More

Stock Insurance

You have a lock on your house. You have a... Read More

cleaning lady near Arlington Heights ..