How We Eluded The Bear Of 2000

The date October 13, 2000 will forever be embedded in my mind. It was the day after our mutual fund trend tracking indicator had broken its long-term trend line and I sold 100% of my clients' invested positions (and my own) and moved the proceeds to the safety of money market accounts. Some people thought we were nuts, but I had come to trust the numbers.

The shake out in the stock market, which started in April 2000, had all major indexes coming off their highs, violently followed by just as strong rally attempts. The roller coaster ride was so extreme that even usually slow moving mutual funds behaved as erratically as tech stocks.

By October, the markets had settled into a definable downtrend, at least according to my indicators. We sat safely on the sidelines and watched the unfolding of what is now considered to be one of the worst bear markets in history.

By April 2001 the markets really had taken a dive, but Wall Street analysts, brokers and the financial press continued to harp on the great buying opportunity this presented. Buying on dips, dollar cost averaging and "V" type recovery were continuously hyped to the unsuspecting public.

By the end of the year, and after the tragic events of 911, the markets were even lower and people began to wake up to the fact that the investing rules of the '90s were no longer applicable. Stories of investors having lost in excess of 50% of their portfolio value were the norm.

Why bring this up now? To illustrate the point that I have continuously propounded throughout the 90s; that a methodical, objective approach with clearly defined Buy and Sell signals is a "must" for any investor.

To say it more bluntly: If you buy an investment and you don't have a clear strategy for taking profits if it goes your way, or taking a small loss if it goes against you, you are not investing; you are merely gambling.

The last 2-1/2 years clearly illustrate that it is as important to be out of the market during bad times, as it is to be in the market during good times. Want proof?

According to InvesTech's monthly newsletter it turns out that, measuring from 1928 to 2002, if you started with $10 and you followed the famous buy-and-hold strategy, that $10 would become $10,957.

If you somehow missed the best 30 months, your $10 would only be $154. However, if you managed to miss the 30 worst months, your $10 would be $1,317,803! Thus, my point: Missing the worst periods has profound impact on long-run compounding. There are times when you end up better off by being out of the market.

Interestingly enough, if you missed the 30 best months and the 30 worst months, your $10 would still be worth $18,558, which is 80% higher than the buy-and-hold strategy. This all comes about because stock prices generally go down faster than they go up.

Wall Street and most people tend to overlook the value of minimizing loss, and that is exactly why the bear demolished more than 50% of many peoples' portfolios while I and those who trusted my advice escaped the worst of the beast's rampage.

About The Author

Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped hundreds of people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com; www.successful-investment.com

recurring maid service Buffalo Grove ..

In The News:

The iconic Mary Kay pink Cadillac goes electric with the Cadillac Optiq, available only to the company's top 1% of sales force performers.

Cybercriminals abuse trusted Intel driver to gain kernel access and shut down Windows Defender, enabling undetected malware deployment since July 2025.

Using email aliases for online shopping and subscriptions can protect your privacy by preventing companies from linking your activity across websites.

New research shows AI overlap does not equal job replacement, with knowledge-based roles seeing most integration while physical jobs remain least affected.

Scammers target seniors who avoid social media by exploiting public records like obituaries and real estate filings to steal personal information and money

Recovery team in Italy use AI-enabled drones to detect missing hiker's red helmet, leading to successful recovery after months of ground searches

Google Salesforce system breach exposes business data while scammers use incident to target users with fake security calls and phishing attempts.

Google announces Pixel 10 lineup with Tensor G5 chip and Gemini Nano AI, introducing Magic Cue, Pro Res Zoom up to 100x and satellite emergency support features.

C San Diego study reveals 86% of school safety companies monitor students 24/7 on personal devices, raising privacy concerns.

Users can now add their favorite outlets' coverage to the Top Stories section of Google search results by utilizing the 'preferred sources' feature. With just a few clicks, you can add Fox News.

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

Interstellar object 3I/ATLAS shows an unexpected frontal glow that Harvard's Avi Loeb says cannot be explained by sunlight reflection or standard cometary outgassing.

Receiving order confirmations for purchases you never made could mean your email address is being exploited in fraud operations targeting multiple retailers.

First wireless brain implant works with Apple's official protocol, enabling hands-free control of iPhones, iPads and Vision Pro through thought alone.

Data brokers sell personal details that scammers use to target retirement funds through fake financial advisor calls and convincing phishing attempts

Ten innovative tech solutions from gait sensors to smart pill dispensers help adults 65+ track fall risks and prevent injuries before they happen.

Meta AI internal documents revealed chatbots were allowed to flirt with children and engage in romantic conversations until the company was exposed by Reuters.

ChatGPT will avoid giving direct mental health advice under new OpenAI rules following instances where the AI model provided harmful or misleading responses.

Your phone tracks you in more ways than that little GPS icon suggests. Here’s how to find and clear hidden location logs on iPhone and Android.

Authorities in France and the Netherlands have been notified. Meanwhile, impacted customers are being told to stay alert.

Apple just rolled out a redesigned Blood Oxygen feature to specific models, following a recent victory in a legal dispute.

Kidney dialysis provider DaVita experienced a ransomware breach by the Interlock gang affecting 916,000 people in the second-largest U.S. healthcare attack of 2025.

A Chinese-made Unitree R1 robot walked Manhattan streets and shopped for shoes as part of KraneShares' $28 million AI robotics fund promotion campaign.

The ShinyHunters cybercriminal group breached Google's Salesforce system through vishing attacks, stealing business contact details and customer data.

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

How We Eluded The Bear Of 2000

Stocks & Mutual Fund