hardie plank siding best siding install vinyl siding lakemoor hardie siding siding installation niles .. Chicago Drug testing

Economists #2

Economists know more about how the fragments of society work than anyone. In school they are taught to break down the economy into its tiniest parts and to quantify each minutiae so it can become part of a formula. Once done those econometric formulas should become a viable equation to predict how the total economy will react when a change occurs to any part of the formula.

Since economists know all this I must ask if these formulas are so good at predicting the economy why aren't all economists rich?

They aren't. And I will give you some clues why.

The more complicated a formula the less likely it is to work. When the economy is not reacting the way an economist thinks it should based on his formula he will tell you that one part of his equation is not acting "normally", whatever that is. Another thing you will find is there is no Holy Grail formula. Each one of these PhDs has tweaked the basic one and either added or subtracted parts or maybe changed the weighting of certain parts. If you ask 1,000 economists for an answer to what will happen and why you will receive 1,000 different reasons. That doesn't mean they are all wrong. It does mean there is no one right way to arrive at a correct prediction. The law of averages will have many with a valid answer even if their reasoning is wrong. Sometimes pure luck is enough.

When I was a floor trader there were a thousand guys trading and each one had a different method to determine if the market was going up or down. One wanted to buy. Another thought the market was headed lower and wanted to sell. At that moment you realize that there is a 50/50 chance one of them is correct. Every time an economist makes a prediction you and I could be a winner or loser.

There are some very smart economists. Not too many. Once in a while one of the young ones come up with an idea that all the others eventually adopt such as the Laffer Curve which we will not explore here. Until an economist has gone through a major bull and bear market cycle you would not want to live or die with his predictions.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

In The News:

Robert Rodriguez Weathers the Stock Market

Robert Rodriguez likes to buy stocks at their lows. When... Read More

Investing Basics - Stocks, Mutual Funds, Real Estate & Online Investing

Have you ever thought of investing? Do you have a... Read More

Trading Tips No 6: The High Cost of Low Cost Stock Market Information

It has been said that low cost or even free... Read More

Basics of Stock Market

Financial markets provide their participants with the most favorable conditions... Read More

Investment Clubs

Because you don't feel too sure about which stock or... Read More

One Way Street

Ever turn down a street, get half way and suddenly... Read More

Dividend Reinvestment Plans: Investing on Automatic Pilot

If you're like many investors who squander those small dividend... Read More

Dont Spend Another Dollar on Business Opportunities Until You Read This

With an insecure job market, overworked employees, insufficient retirement savings... Read More

Frog In The Pot

You remember the story about the frog that was put... Read More

Making a Stock Watch List

I am taking the time to help others learn the... Read More

How Commodity Trading Differs from Stock Trading

There are major differences between trading stocks and trading futures.... Read More

War Market

There is no question that the stock market is being... Read More

Trading Tips No 2: The Big Lie in the Stock Market

It is commonly reported that the stock market averages about... Read More

No Load Mutual Funds: Boost Your Portfolios Returns

Investors who exclusively use broadly diversified, no load mutual funds... Read More

How to Pay Less and Get More: Discount Broker vs Professional

How do you invest? What do you really pay? At... Read More

Mutual Fund Commissions

You have heard about a particular mutual fund from a... Read More

Is The Bear In The Cage?

For the last few weeks we have seen the stock... Read More

Buy Low - Sell High

Now where have I heard that before? I know. It... Read More

How to Evaluate Load vs. No Load Mutual Funds

If you have been dealing with mutual funds for any... Read More

An Old Proverb for Investing

"If you don't know where you are going, any road... Read More

What is Involved in Peak Performance Trading?

There is so much involved in developing peak performance, that... Read More

Dividends

When is a dividend not a dividend?The latest thing "conservative"... Read More

The Secret to More Winning Trades is as Simple as Avoiding This Common Mistake

If you're a normal human being, your need to feel... Read More

What the Hell is a Stock option?

A 'stock option' is a contract between two parties giving... Read More

Economists #2

Economists know more about how the fragments of society work... Read More

street lighting fixtures philips induction lighting Pete's produce ..
street lighting fixtures philips induction lighting Pete's produce ..