The Shadow knows. Remember him? It seems a shadow has a firm grip on this stock market. Since the terrible break in mid-April we had a rally and then a decline. Trying to choose a suitable stock or mutual fund has been like grasping at shadows.
Two great Wall Street gurus, Elaine Garzarelli who manages multimillions of investors' dollars and George Soros, king of the hedge funds, each have a different take on the future.
Elaine thinks the Dow Jones Industrials will be at 12,000 to 12,500 by the end of the year. Big George says we are in a bear market and must be very careful where to invest money right now. Another pundit I saw on CNBC whose name I can't remember made a very good case for a trading range for the next several months.
Let's examine the psychology of the majority of investors at this moment in time. Almost every one of them has been beaten with a large stick and big paper profits have been taken from their wallets. They haven't really lost anything, but their enthusiasm for putting more money into the market has been greatly diminished. Most of the financial columnists and talking heads are saying this is a time for caution. The old "buy the break" conventional wisdom seems to have disappeared. How is this going to affect the entire market?
It takes more buyers than sellers to put the market up. That takes conviction and enthusiasm, both of which seem to be lacking. Until the little investor gets back his confidence it makes sense that this market has more chance of going sideways than of making any new contract highs.
There is so much bearish sentiment about what Mr. Greenspan is going to say next week that it may turn into a nonevent. In fact because of all this negative sentiment whatever he does may already be factored into the market. Even if it is a sharp interest rate increase the market may throw it off and move up much to everyone's surprise. A negative event followed by a market rise is quite bullish as we saw from the unemployment number on Friday. That 3.9% unemployment number should have made the market go down, but it went the other way. We could be in for a rally this week.
I believe that if a stock or mutual fund is not going up with a strong momentum you should not buy it. Right now almost all mutual funds are going sideways. There is plenty of time to get invested so the best thing to do is wait until a definite upward trend is established and then buy it.
Since none of the great market mavens can agree then who must you rely upon? You know. You must reply upon your own judgment. Not a broker, not a banker, not an economist, not the guy on CNBC. You. Your guess is just as good as anyone else. You.
Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.
1-888-345-7870; http://www.mutualfundmagic.com
The greatest stock market myth is the idea that investing... Read More
Analyzing growth stocks is an important focus for any investor.... Read More
Picture one of those clubs where only the real heavyweights... Read More
How can you dispel an illusion unless you look directly... Read More
One of the big advertising kicks today from mutual funds... Read More
04/28/2005NASDAQ dropped -12.5% year to date in 2005. S&P500 index... Read More
As I have said many times before in this column... Read More
The trading method you employ to approach the stock market... Read More
Stock trading can be a very profitable activity. You can... Read More
You have heard about a particular mutual fund from a... Read More
This is a rather simple strategy with which I am... Read More
Are you paying any attention to your retirement savings? Do... Read More
There is so much involved in developing peak performance, that... Read More
What are you thinking when it comes to your no... Read More
Is really not as important as to how you invest... Read More
One of the basic laws of physics is that a... Read More
Everyone who invests in the stock market wants to be... Read More
Picking a beaten-down stock requires a different kind of selection... Read More
You remember (they show it on TV every year) the... Read More
In 1960 an engineer working for a watch company in... Read More
Spread trading is a technique that can be used to... Read More
Every publicly traded company is required by the SEC(Securities and... Read More
A common problem I often see when working with living... Read More
Robert Rodriguez likes to buy stocks at their lows. When... Read More
In his wonderful book, 'Multiple Streams of Income', best selling... Read More
experienced cleaning professionals Highland Park ...Hedge current portfolio positions and gain access to capital resources... Read More
You read and hear a lot about hedge funds. Unfortunately,... Read More
Mutual funds by definition are a mixed bag of stocks,... Read More
What account size do I need?How much money can I... Read More
When it comes to buying a stock or mutual fund... Read More
Never lose money in the stock market again. Yeah, I... Read More
Money: the most charged word in the planet. It means... Read More
How many times has this happened to you? You're at... Read More
There is a current movie entitled "Eternal Sunshine of the... Read More
On November 17 I bought 7 different mutual funds and... Read More
Day trading is all about making buy and sell decisions.... Read More
If you have been watching the stock market at all... Read More
Even if you don't own any of their stock or... Read More
Starbucks earnings are up again and so is their stock... Read More
The broker told me not to sell because the mutual... Read More
Most people think the stock market is a zero sum... Read More
I feel that an investment strategy in the stock market... Read More
If you've ever flipped on the television to CNN Financial... Read More
Everyone who follows the financial news has heard of mutual... Read More
If you are fed up with early redemption charges and... Read More
Last time we looked at the real performance of the... Read More
In November of 2000 when the NASDAQ was trading at... Read More
If you are a baby boomer, time is not on... Read More
What are you thinking when it comes to your no... Read More
On the 40 year journey through the turmoil of a... Read More
Stocks & Mutual Fund |