Quick, look out the window. It's raining. No, the sun's out. No, it's cloudy. Wait a second, it is changing again, but I can't tell what it is going to do.
Kinds like the stock market. Up one day, down the next, then goes sideways. That stock I bought is not acting right. Maybe I should sell it, but I'll wait another day. My broker (the weatherman) says it will go back up.
At the beginning of every year we hear stock market forecast (whether we want to or not) and every one of the "experts" is about as accurate as our TV weatherman. Be sure to take your umbrella. Every year the Wall Street Journal surveys more than 50 economists and every year about 1/3rd of them are right. A weatherman can do better than that. The analysis of these birds seems impeccable and when you hear them speak so confidently you are sure they are right. He must be right ? he's a broker/economist/financial planner and they know everything. Well, at least a lot more than I do ? maybe.
Having owned a brokerage company and hired about 300 brokers I can assure you they don't know any more than you do. It just sounds that way. The one question you should always ask any broker before you give him your money is if he had a winning year last year. The market was down overall about 25%. If he lost more than 5% you don't want to know him. And if he says he made a bundle you had better question him carefully and ask for proof.
For the last 3 years almost everyone lost money. But this year it will be different. My broker said so. Only once before did it ever go down 4 years in a row and the odds of it's happening again are astronomical. Now that's logic for you. If you want to know what the weather is you look out the window. This same logic goes for the stock market. It is going down except for brief periods. As long as the major trend continues it would be wise NOT to buy anything.
Now that President Bush has given us his "stimulus" package and the Democrats have countered with theirs I wonder how long they are going to fight over how much and who gets what. It could be months before we see anything definitive from Washington. And that means you and I won't be getting any relief until then.
Tell those guys in the Beltway that it's raining and we need an umbrella ? NOW!
Al Thomas
Author of "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!"
Never lose money in the stock market again.
http://www.mutualfundmagic.com
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are a group of passive index... Read More
On November 17 I bought 7 different mutual funds and... Read More
It has often been said that there is only two... Read More
Robert Rodriguez likes to buy stocks at their lows. When... Read More
The World Bank claims that some two billion of the... Read More
Trading is a fascinating activity.There are so many layers to... Read More
Spread trading is a technique that can be used to... Read More
As an investor you will want to check out any... Read More
No, this is not a symbol for some Latin number.... Read More
Every year I go to the Money Show in Orlando,... Read More
We've all heard of the stock market and probably have... Read More
Let's go into the details of why non-indexed mutual funds... Read More
When it comes to 401k's there is an overabundance of... Read More
Do you own any mutual funds? In an IRA or... Read More
I often play a little game with myself when I... Read More
Every Wall Street analyst, financial planner and broker will tell... Read More
In a previously written article, we expanded the use of... Read More
What account size do I need?How much money can I... Read More
There are formulas for just about everything, but it has... Read More
When you invest in the stock market for ever-increasing cash... Read More
There has been great condemnation recently because China has been... Read More
After some forty years of banking and investments, I retired... Read More
There is so much involved in developing peak performance, that... Read More
Over the past few months, several investment professionals have brought... Read More
We need a rabbit!This was a pretty horrible week for... Read More
People are constantly asking me why is the stock market... Read More
During our travel down life's path we come to many... Read More
If you are fed up with early redemption charges and... Read More
This is a rather simple strategy with which I am... Read More
The following are a list of nine things you want... Read More
The stock market can present you with a lot of... Read More
We learnt the following the hard way! If any of... Read More
Every day on CNBC-TV they show a 200-day moving average... Read More
For some "long term" would mean holding a stock position... Read More
Several times each month I am solicited by various market... Read More
I have been trading for several decades and was an... Read More
People are always asking me when should I sell my... Read More
Every successful trader has a winning system. There are of... Read More
Most stock traders know that momentum trading can be a... Read More
There has been great condemnation recently because China has been... Read More
It is finally catching up with them. The brokerage companies... Read More
On November 17 I bought 7 different mutual funds and... Read More
Trading is a fascinating activity.There are so many layers to... Read More
You probably know the story of Sherlock Holmes and the... Read More
Has your broker been calling you recently with the "great... Read More
Now that you have some money burning a hole in... Read More
You remember the story about the frog that was put... Read More
Reach in your pocket and take out that big roll... Read More
You have a lock on your house. You have a... Read More
With the stock market stubbornly refusing to settle down and... Read More
Stocks & Mutual Fund |